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Unmasking the 'greedflation' myth: A Bank of England study sheds light

In a recent study by the Bank of England, it has been revealed that only a select few companies with significant market influence have managed to boost their profit margins since the onset of the Ukraine conflict.

The study, which was released on the Bank's Underground blog, states that excessive profits are primarily seen in specific sectors like energy and retail, while the broader economy has seen a decline in profits due to rising operational costs.

The research serves as the Bank's inaugural comprehensive analysis on the topic of "greedflation"—the notion that companies are capitalising on the escalating cost of living to expand their profit margins. The study's authors, economists Sophie Piton, Ivan Yotzov, and Ed Manuel, argue that some metrics showing increased profits since Russia's invasion of Ukraine are misleading. These metrics often mix firms operating in market conditions with those in the public sector and overlook crucial corporate expenses.

The authors further elaborate, "We've developed an alternative metric for assessing corporate profits that accounts for all production costs in the UK. According to this metric, profits have been on a downward trend since the beginning of 2022, aligning with historical data on energy crises."

The decline in profits is not uniform across all companies. Firms with greater market power have successfully increased their margins, while others have seen significant drops. Contrary to other studies, including one from the European Central Bank, which suggest that expanding profit margins are contributing to inflation, the Bank of England's economists assert that their focus is more nuanced, considering both self-employed and non-market sectors.

The Bank's study also emphasises the importance of considering the cost of capital maintenance and replacement, as well as wages, when calculating excess profits. Profits did see an uptick in 2021, coinciding with the post-lockdown surge in demand but started to decline in 2022, particularly due to the Ukraine conflict and subsequent rise in capital costs for firms.

While the study admits to a lack of detailed data on company markups since the energy crisis exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war, it notes that the impact is consistent with energy shocks dating back to the early 1970s. The study also highlights that the overall decline in profits conceals significant sectoral variations, particularly in energy-intensive industries and those with fewer competitors.

In summary, the Bank of England's study offers a nuanced view that challenges the widespread belief in "greedflation" across the UK economy. It suggests that only companies with significant market power have been able to exploit the situation, while the broader economy faces a squeeze on profits due to rising costs.


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