A Quarter of UK Farmland Could Disappear by 2050, Threatening Domestic Food Security

A new report warns that 23 per cent of currently farmed land in the UK could be lost over the next 25 years due to competing land-use demands; threatening to displace UK food production at an unprecedented scale.

The UK Food Security – Outlook to 2050 report has been published by Science for Sustainable Agriculture and authored by Dr Derrick Wilkinson, a former chief economist at the CLA.

It raises concerns about the potential loss of up to 23 per cent of currently farmed land by 2050 due to competing land-use demands such as housing, solar infrastructure, tree planting and carbon offsetting. 

It also warns that, unless agricultural productivity is significantly boosted, these trends could lead to a 32 per cent fall in domestic food production, exposing the UK to increased import reliance and food price volatility.

“The evidence is stark,” warned Dr Wilkinson. “Over the past quarter of a century, the UK has lost 771,000 hectares of farmland – 4.4 per cent of its agricultural area. This loss has been steady but relentless, with arable land giving way to development and renewable energy projects, and livestock land lost to environmental schemes and woodland expansion.

“Over the same period, aggregated food yields per hectare have increased by about 15 per cent, but those gains have not offset the shrinking farmland base or the demands of an increasing population. Overall, food production on UK farms rose by just ten per cent between 2000 and 2024, while the population grew by nearly 15 per cent. That left Britons with five per cent less home-grown food per person, while self-sufficiency in primary agricultural products fell by 12 per cent.”

He continued, “No one disputes the importance of tackling climate change or restoring biodiversity. Nor is there any question that housing, renewable energy, and infrastructure all require land. But the stark reality is that Britain is running out of space… Together, these competing demands are set to create a land use crunch that threatens Britain’s ability to feed itself. For too long, food production has been ignored in land use policy. That must change.

“Food security can no longer be treated as an afterthought in land and environmental policy. It must be a central objective, considered alongside climate and biodiversity. It will require much better coordination and joined-up thinking across government departments responsible for farming, environment, energy, housing, and trade. Farm support policies should prioritise high-yield production on the most productive farmland, while still enabling environmental gains elsewhere. Trade policy should avoid undermining domestic producers with imports produced to lower standards. And population policy should recognise its direct implications for food demand.

“Above all, policymakers must acknowledge the reality that Britain cannot reliably meet its food needs by allowing domestic output to decline and depending ever more heavily on imports. At the same time, and writing as a former NFU chief economist, I am deeply concerned for our farmers being led down a dead-end path towards lower yielding, so-called ‘nature friendly’ farming.”

Read the full report

Source: HortNews