Autumn Budget 2025: Best And Worst Case Scenarios For Britain’s Growers

As Rachel Reeves stands up in the Commons today to deliver her Autumn Budget, Britain’s fruit and vegetable growers will be watching with a mix of anxiety and very cautious hope.

This is the second Budget from the new Labour government, set against weak growth, a sizeable fiscal gap and heavy pressure to raise revenue without touching manifesto promises on income tax, VAT or National Insurance.

For horticulture, the stakes are unusually high. The long-running EU-legacy Fruit and Vegetable Aid Scheme is due to close to English Producer Organisations on 31 December 2025, with no replacement yet confirmed. Cross-party MPs and industry leaders have repeatedly warned that the Budget is the “last chance” to avoid a damaging support gap for a sector worth over £4bn to the UK economy.

At the same time, growers are bracing for the so-called “family farm tax” – inheritance tax reforms that would, from April 2026, apply a 20 per cent charge to agricultural land and farming businesses above £1m. Farming unions, supply-chain bodies and rural MPs have urged the Treasury to rethink or soften the policy, warning it could force many family farms to sell land or assets simply to meet future tax bills.

Overlay that with a looming 94 per cent hike in electricity network charges for controlled-environment horticulture from April 2026 – a change that could add millions to annual costs – and it is easy to see why growers describe today as a “make or break” moment.

Seasonal labour adds another layer of uncertainty. The recent tweak to the Seasonal Worker Scheme, allowing horticulture workers to stay up to six months within any rolling ten-month period, has been welcomed. But growers still lack long-term assurance on visa numbers, scheme costs and future policy direction, while further rises in the National Living Wage next April will add pressure to already tight business margins.

Meanwhile, farmer confidence remains at record lows. Recent surveys suggest around half of British farmers have considered leaving the industry in the past year, and the vast majority expect a decline in family farms if conditions don’t improve. Many are calling on government to “renew its relationship” with farming and commit to a multi-annual agricultural budget that reflects the importance of domestic food security.

Against that backdrop, here’s what a genuine best-case – and a very real worst-case – Autumn Budget could look like for British growers.

Best-Case Scenario: A Budget That Backs British Horticulture

1. A Replacement For The Fruit & Veg Aid Scheme

In the most optimistic outcome, Reeves announces a successor scheme for the Fruit and Vegetable Aid Scheme in England, avoiding a cliff-edge end on 31 December next year. A modernised version could prioritise investment in technology, water security, sustainable substrates and climate resilience.

Such a move would reassure the 30-plus producer organisations and roughly 1,000 growers currently reliant on the scheme that they can continue investing without losing competitive ground to EU growers whose equivalent support has already been renewed.

2. A Rethink On The “Family Farm Tax”

A best-case Budget would pause or redesign the inheritance tax reforms set to begin in April 2026. Options floated by industry and MPs include:

• Raising the £1m threshold significantly for genuine farming businesses

• Introducing clearly defined rules distinguishing active farmers from passive landowners

• Retaining full Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief for working farms

Any of these steps would signal that government understands the link between succession, long-term investment and national food security.

3. Relief From Soaring Energy Costs

For glasshouse and protected-cropping growers, a positive Budget would acknowledge the 94 per cent increase in electricity network charges and introduce targeted mitigation – such as time-limited rebates, enhanced relief through Climate Change Agreements, or grants for renewable energy and efficiency upgrades.

Support linked to measurable carbon and efficiency gains would also align with the government’s wider climate goals.

4. Long-Term Certainty On Seasonal Labour

Growers’ ideal scenario is not simply more visas for one year but a multi-year settlement on the Seasonal Worker Scheme. Stable numbers, predictable scheme costs and clarity on visa rules would allow farmers to plan crop rotations, invest in automation and grow their businesses with confidence.

5. A Protected, Multi-Year Farming And Horticulture Budget

A Budget that commits to protecting Defra’s agricultural envelope through the Spending Review would offer rare stability. Farming unions have long argued that a multi-annual settlement is essential if food production, environmental improvement and clean energy goals are to be achieved simultaneously.

Additional capital grants for irrigation, packhouses, storage, robotics and data-driven growing would further strengthen the sector’s resilience.

6. Investment Incentives For Modernisation

A grower-friendly Budget would balance revenue-raising with pro-investment measures, such as extending full expensing or increasing the Annual Investment Allowance for glasshouses, cold stores, automation and digital crop-management tools.

Combined, these measures would make a clear statement that horticulture is viewed as a strategic sector worthy of serious investment.

Worst-Case Scenario: A Perfect Storm Of Costs And Uncertainty

1. No Replacement For The Aid Scheme

If the Fruit and Vegetable Aid Scheme is allowed to lapse without a successor, producer organisations could be forced to scale back production and investment from 2026. This would hit jobs, limit innovation and potentially increase the UK’s reliance on imports at a time when food security is already under scrutiny.

2. The “Family Farm Tax” Goes Ahead Unchanged

If the government insists the new inheritance tax rules are fixed, with no adjustment to thresholds or reliefs, many multigenerational farms will face difficult choices. Land sales or forced restructuring to prepare for the 2026 start date could weaken local supply chains and reduce planted area.

Unions warn that such a move would sit uncomfortably with repeated ministerial claims that protecting food security is a national priority.

3. No Intervention On Energy Costs

If the Budget ignores the huge electricity network charge increase for protected cropping, Britain risks seeing more glasshouses sitting empty. With margins already lean, an energy shock of this scale could make domestic production unviable for many growers and shift even more of the UK’s supply offshore.

4. Short-Termism On Seasonal Labour

If no multi-year commitment on Seasonal Worker visas emerges, growers will once again be left planning long-term crops on the basis of short-term labour policy. Any tightening of visa numbers or uplift in scheme costs, combined with another rise in the National Living Wage, could push many labour-intensive businesses to the edge.

Younger farmers, already fatigued by policy instability, may choose to exit the sector altogether.

5. A Squeezed Defra Budget

If Defra’s budget is quietly trimmed as part of wider departmental cuts, growers could face reduced support at the very moment they are being asked to deliver more on climate, nature and productivity. Fewer grants, slower programme delivery and limited advisory capacity would all restrict growth and innovation.

What Growers Will Be Watching For Today

As the Chancellor rises to speak, growers will be looking for clear answers to five big questions:

• Will the Fruit and Vegetable Aid Scheme be replaced with a modern successor?

• Is there any rethink of the “family farm tax”?

• Will the energy-cost shock for protected cropping be addressed?

• Will the Seasonal Worker Scheme get a stable, multi-year settlement?

• Will Defra’s farming and horticulture budgets be protected?

For Britain’s growers, today’s Budget is not just another fiscal event. It is a test of whether government is genuinely committed to domestic food security, stable supply chains and the long-term future of the family farm.

If Reeves leans towards the best-case scenario, she has an opportunity to reset relations and unlock the investment needed to build a greener, more productive sector. If the worst-case version prevails, many in the industry may conclude that warm words about “backing British farming” still aren’t being met by action.