New Research Shows Climate Risks And Slowing Productivity Put Fresh Produce Supplies Under Pressure

Europe’s food systems remain among the world’s most resilient, but slowing agricultural productivity growth, rising input costs and climate pressures are threatening their long-term strength, according to new research.

Economist Enterprise’s Resilient Food Systems Index, supported by Cargill, assesses 60 countries across affordability, availability, quality and safety, and responsiveness to climate risks. Its European report examines 14 countries, including the UK, Spain, France and the Netherlands.

Only three of those European countries recorded faster average annual agricultural productivity growth in 2018–2022 than in 2013–2017. Agricultural production was also more volatile year on year than in any other region covered by the index except North America.

The report identifies several pressures behind this weakening performance, including expensive and volatile farm inputs, climate risks and insufficient investment in agricultural research. It also warns that warming is increasing the reach and intensity of crop pests and diseases.

Water and refrigeration emerge as priorities. The European group scored 41.53 out of 100 for irrigation infrastructure, while its end-to-end cold-chain indicator scored 26.19, reflecting gaps in dedicated strategies. The researchers call for investment in irrigation, storage and distribution.

The global report also identifies differences in cross-border requirements as a constraint. It argues that better alignment of certification, inspection and other non-tariff measures can reduce trading costs and improve farmers’ access to markets while maintaining safety and quality standards.

For UK fresh produce businesses, a separate warning comes from sustainability consultancy Aethr Associates. Its updated analysis suggests that changing sourcing patterns may be compounding climate exposure, as trade shifts towards regions facing greater risks.

According to Aethr figures reported by The Grocer, UK imports from Mediterranean North Africa increased by 117% between 2019 and 2025. Imports from North Africa and the Sahel rose by 45%, and those from southern Africa by 35%. Imports from western and central Europe fell by 35% over the same period.

Aethr identifies opportunities to strengthen domestic supply through technology, protected production and longer growing seasons. Categories highlighted include cucumbers and tomatoes, for which UK production accounted for 20% and 17% respectively in its analysis.

“We are solving next season’s problem by increasing the risk to the next decade’s supply,” Aethr co-founder Richard Bonn told The Grocer. The consultancy wants climate resilience considered alongside price, quality and availability in strategic sourcing decisions.