Drought Set To Persist Into 2026 Posing Ongoing Risk For Growers

England must prepare for an ongoing drought in 2026, unless there is significant rainfall this autumn and winter, and further water shortages in the future due to climate change, warns The National Drought Group.

Despite recent rainfall, a large part of the country remains in drought as winter approaches following the driest spring in 132 years and the hottest summer since records began in 1884, as declared by the Met Office.

Currently, some 41% of England’s reservoirs are less than half full, whereas they should be at 76% capacity at this time of year, according to Defra. Average reservoir storage is at 63.3%.

Looking ahead, the Met Office predicts that without sustained and widespread precipitation a consistent recovery from drought “remains uncertain” since there is an increased risk of dry spells through late autumn and early winter.

Increased Resilience Urged

With competing demand for finite resources, all sectors, including water companies, agriculture, navigation, and energy, have been urged to take steps to increase their resilience for a prolonged drought. 

This includes water companies promoting more efficient water use and increasing their efforts to reduce leakage. Defra said they must also make sure their assets, such as pipes, pumps and reservoirs, are working well and submit applications for drought permits early to maximise water storage. 

Farmers have been urged to check their licences and speak to the Environment Agency (EA) if they are likely to need flexibility. They have also been asked to look to increase reservoir storage and work with neighbours to share water, where possible.  

To address the concerns about England’s water resources, the National Drought Group, including the Met Office, government, regulators, water companies, the National Farmers’ Union, Canal & River Trust, anglers, and conservation experts, met in London at the end of last week.

Following this year’s record dry spring and warm summer, the expert group heard during an Environment Agency presentation that England needs at least 100% of average rainfall (482mm) to largely recover from drought by the end of March next year. 

However, so far in 2025 only two months of the year have recorded more than 100% rainfall. 

National Drought Group chair Helen Wakeham said the nation needs “a lot more rain” this winter to fill up rivers, reservoirs, and groundwater, in addition to ongoing work to shore up future resources.

“The changing climate means we must prepare for more droughts,” Wakeham stated. “Securing our water resources needs to be a national priority. We expect water companies to continue their water-saving messaging, even through the winter, as well as carry on reducing leaks.”

Water Minister Emma Hardy said the government is taking decisive action, including the development of nine new reservoirs to help secure long-term water resilience.

All regions of the country continue to be monitored.

Key Points From The Meeting

• September saw 149% of long-term average rainfall across England but, despite Storm Benjamin, October (up to 28th) has seen 77%.  

• There has been a regional divide with rainfall. The north west received 190% in September and the north east 171%. The south east received 126% and the east 100%.   

• The rain has helped the two areas of Cumbria and Lancashire, and Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Cheshire both move out of drought status into drought recovery today. While this signals an improvement in this area, the position is fragile and with further dry weather, these areas could move back to drought.    

• Average reservoir storage is now 63.3% compared to the average for this time of year of 76%.     

• Ardingly, in west Sussex, and Clatworthy and Wimbleball both in Somerset, are below 30%  

• The very low level in Ardingly was the reason the EA declared drought in parts of Sussex earlier this month, but recent rainfall has helped.  

• South East Water (SEW) has submitted two Drought Orders to Defra. The first, for the River Ouse, and the second for a non-essential use ban which, if implemented, would see water restrictions on some businesses. Both are still being considered by Defra.     

• Yorkshire Water has applied for, and been granted, one Drought Order for the River Ouse and 44 Drought Permits.    

• Severn Trent has applied for a Drought Permit to help refill Carsington Water reservoir. This is under consideration.  

• Temporary Use Bans (aka hosepipe bans) imposed by Yorkshire Water, Thames, South East Water, and Southern Water need to remain in place until their water resources situation recovers.     

• Recent rainfall has helped ease pressure on the agricultural sector but there are concerns heading into winter on feed availability for livestock due to poor grass growth over the spring and summer.    

• Navigation on the Canal & River Trust network is gradually improving including key lock flights on the Oxford and Grand Union Canal now open.