El Niño Disrupts UK Avocado And Asparagus Supplies
El Niño is beginning to disrupt fresh produce supply chains serving the UK, affecting the availability of avocados and asparagus while creating potential risks for mangoes and grapes.
With imported produce accounting for more than 80% of the UK’s fruit supply, changing weather patterns across major growing regions are placing established sourcing programmes under increasing pressure.
Higher temperatures in Peru have accelerated avocado development, creating shortages of small and medium-sized fruit and bringing the country’s season to an earlier-than-expected conclusion. Retailers have consequently been forced to adjust their promotional plans.
Peruvian asparagus has also been badly affected. Julian Marks, chief executive of vegetable supplier Barfoots, said yields were down by 25%, while plant stress had reduced both quality and shelf life.
The supply situation is particularly challenging because Peru remains a principal source of asparagus until Mexican production begins in February, leaving buyers with limited alternative sourcing options during the intervening period.
Further disruption could follow as El Niño is expected to bring heavy rainfall to parts of South America. If the wet weather coincides with harvest periods, mango and grape crops could become more vulnerable to fungal diseases.
UK suppliers traditionally move between producing regions throughout the year to maintain consistent availability, but increasingly unpredictable conditions are making those carefully planned seasonal transitions more difficult.
Domestic production is facing pressures of its own. Heavy rainfall forecast for the UK this winter could help replenish aquifers and reservoirs depleted by the summer drought, but may also damage field crops. The exceptionally hot summer has already reduced yields of heat-sensitive crops, including peas.
The effects of El Niño could extend well beyond fresh produce. India and Thailand, both major rice-producing countries, are expected to experience adverse conditions that could affect harvest volumes and potentially influence export policies. Cocoa supplies are also exposed because much of the world’s crop is concentrated in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana.
Immediate retail price increases are not necessarily expected, as supermarkets continue trying to protect shoppers from further food inflation. However, suppliers are reportedly finding it difficult to pass rising costs through the supply chain.
Analysts have warned that the resulting inflationary pressure may have been delayed rather than eliminated, with some additional costs currently being absorbed by growers and suppliers.
The disruption highlights the growing challenge of maintaining year-round availability as extreme and unpredictable weather places pressure on production across multiple sourcing regions.
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