Extreme Hot Days To Rise 49 Per Cent In New Era Of Weather Whiplash

UK growers, suppliers, and retailers face mounting risks from extreme swings between drought and flooding, with new modelling warning that the number of exceptionally hot days could increase by up to 49 per cent by 2050.

A new era of climate whiplash, categorised by sudden swings in extreme weather, is set to place increasing pressure on the UK’s food supply chain as unpredictable climate patterns disrupt growing conditions, reduce agricultural output, and threaten the reliability of supply chains.

New research from climate risk and analytics software company SmartResilience, reported by Grocery Trader, indicates that extreme heat could become a more frequent challenge for food production as well as the broader infrastructure bringing food from farm to supermarket shelf.

The SmartResilience Food Supply analysis found that the number of exceptionally hot days experienced by locations across the food supply chain could rise by between 26 per cent and 49 per cent from 2030 to 2050, depending on future emissions.

SmartResilience examined data from almost 3,000 suppliers connected to Britain’s ten largest supermarkets, including 1,284 UK sites. 

The assessment considered how food growing operations, processing facilities, and other businesses who supply retailers are exposed to hazards including heat, water stress, flooding, wildfires, and tropical cyclones.

Under the modelling, the average number of such days is projected to increase from approximately 7.9 in 2030 to between 9.9 and 11.8 by 2050. 

The study defines an extreme hot day according to each location’s historical climate, identifying temperatures within the hottest 2 per cent of days previously recorded there. 

Although the UK is expected to experience fewer extreme hot days than countries such as Turkey and Greece, the projected increase presents challenges for domestic production and the wider network responsible for processing, storing, and distributing food.

“The concern isn’t simply that Britain is getting hotter,” pointed out Harish Pesala, founder and CEO of SmartResilience. “It’s the speed at which food producers are having to move from one extreme to another.

“We have gone from an exceptionally wet winter to drought and record-breaking summer heat. For farmers and food producers, those rapid swings make it much harder to plan, produce and operate reliably.

“Our modelling suggests these pressures are not going away. The number of extreme hot days faced by locations across Britain’s food supply chain could rise significantly over the coming decades, while flooding and other climate risks remain concentrated in some of the individual locations the food system depends on most,” Pesala added.

Implications Beyond The Growing Season

The effects of extreme temperatures extend beyond crop production. 

Packing operations, processing facilities, and distribution networks also face operational challenges when temperatures rise.

Research cited by the Index indicates that productivity among workers undertaking moderate-to-heavy physical tasks can decline by 35 per cent at 35°C and 76 per cent at 40°C. 

Temperature management presents another concern, particularly for fresh produce businesses, which rely on effective refrigeration and cold-chain operations to protect product quality and shelf life. 

SmartResilience’s report highlights supermarket cold-chain failures experienced during this year’s heatwaves, which led to product withdrawals.

These pressures come against a backdrop of substantial agricultural losses. 

According to analysis cited in the Index, three of England’s poorest harvests on record have occurred during the current decade, generating estimated losses of £2.3 billion.

Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Are Concentrated

The SmartResilience findings suggest that assessing climate exposure across the food sector requires more than simply counting the number of sites at risk. 

The significance of individual locations, and the number of businesses relying on them, can be equally important.

Across 2,273 supplier locations, flooding represents an estimated £322 million in Average Annual Loss. 

However, the potential financial impact is concentrated among a relatively small number of sites: 2% account for half of the modelled flood losses, while 9 per cent account for 80 per cent.

Furthermore, the impact of flooding on supermarket availability extends beyond just the UK, with extreme weather in an overseas production region leading to restricted imports.

Damage to a processing site, distribution centre, or transport route can all interrupt the movement of goods too.

Earlier this year, flooding in southern Spain and Morocco contributed to shortages of strawberries, raspberries, avocados, and peppers at major UK supermarkets.

Supplier relationships create another potential pressure point. 

SmartResilience’s analysis found that one-third of suppliers served at least two of the supermarkets included in the study, with some supplying as many as eight retailers.

Where several retailers depend on the same business, an interruption at that supplier could affect multiple customers simultaneously, making alternative sourcing more difficult when supplies are already constrained.

“Food security isn’t only about whether Britain produces enough food,” explained Pesala. 

“It is also about whether the farms, factories, transport links and suppliers we depend on can continue operating when conditions become more extreme.

“The important thing for businesses is knowing where those vulnerabilities are before disruption happens. If you can identify the handful of locations carrying a disproportionate amount of risk, you can concentrate investment and contingency planning where it will make the biggest difference.”

Building Resilience Into Sourcing Decisions

SmartResilience argues that businesses need to identify their exposure to climate-related hazards before an extreme weather event affects production or distribution.

Assessing individual sites and suppliers can help companies identify vulnerabilities associated with heat, flooding, and water stress, allowing them to prioritise investment and develop contingency plans around the locations most critical to supply.

The company offers a free Climate Risk Checker to demonstrate the location-specific climate risk information available through its platform.

“Climate resilience needs to be part of everyday business decisions, from which suppliers you work with to where you invest and how you plan for disruption,” Pesala added. 

“The earlier businesses understand where their risks are, the better placed they are to adapt.”