Fresh Growth Forecast Could Bear Fruit for UK Horticulture

The IMF has nudged up its UK GDP growth forecast to 1.2 percent in 2025, with a further rise to 1.4 percent in 2026, reflecting a resilience that outpaces many European peers.

Global growth is expected to hit 3 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, bolstered by lower US tariffs and an import surge into America known as “front‑loading”.

These modest, yet solid, upgrades carry particular relevance for the UK’s horticulture and fresh produce sector.

At around 2 percent of farmed land, the horticultural sector contributes nearly 20 percent of farmgate value, producing fruit, vegetables, plants and flowers worth over £4 billion annually.

The UK currently produces only approximately 50 percent of vegetables and 15 percent of fruit consumed, with the remainder imported—often from climate‑vulnerable regions whose reliability is increasingly under threat.

Opportunities and Risks for the Sector

Modest growth forecasts may encourage policy makers to prioritise horticulture in economic and food‑security strategy, supporting the ambition to increase self‑sufficiency. The NFU’s ten building blocks for growth show potential for the industry, from labour access to infrastructure and water resilience.

Stronger consumer confidence and modest interest‑rate easing could stimulate demand for home‑grown fruit and vegetables.

However, the heavy reliance on imports—especially from water‑scarce and climate‑vulnerable nations—exposes the UK to supply disruptions, price volatility and reduced variety.

Adding to this, persistent inflation and global cost pressures may still undermine profitability unless government initiatives, such as subsidies or regulatory support, step in.

The IMF’s incremental upward revision to 1.2 percent growth in 2025, rising to 1.4 percent in 2026, is modest in percentage terms but represents a stabilising backdrop for the UK horticulture and fresh produce sector.

Policymakers now have a window to strengthen domestic production, reduce import reliance, and create a more resilient supply chain in the face of ongoing global uncertainties.