Fresh Produce Prices Set to Surge as Grocery Inflation Rises Again

Grocery price inflation in the UK has crept higher once more, with fresh produce shoppers warned to brace for further price hikes over the coming months.

According to the latest data, grocery inflation rose to 3.5% in the four weeks to 23 March – up from 3.3% the previous month – reversing recent signs of slowing price growth. While categories such as confectionery and dairy have seen sharp increases, the fresh produce sector is expected to face renewed pressure as post-Brexit border checks finally come into force.

From July, new border controls on food imports from the European Union will introduce physical inspections and additional paperwork for fruit, vegetables and plant products entering the UK. Industry insiders warn these measures will heap significant costs onto fresh produce supply chains, which are already under strain from higher wages, energy bills and local taxes.

The Fresh Produce Consortium (FPC) and other trade bodies have repeatedly cautioned that these extra red tape and inspection costs will inevitably be passed on to consumers. With around two-thirds of the UK’s fresh produce sourced from the EU, shoppers are likely to see higher prices on fruit and vegetable shelves throughout the summer and beyond.

Retail analysts predict that overall grocery inflation could exceed 4% by the second half of the year, with fresh produce at the sharp end of further price rises.

For UK consumers already feeling the squeeze, the fresh fruit and veg aisle may soon deliver another blow to household budgets.