Fresh Produce Shortages Loom As Input Crisis Bites

Fruit and vegetable shortages are expected soon in UK supermarkets, along with higher food prices, as rising fertiliser, energy, and fuel costs begin to impact planting decisions and crop output.

Industry experts warn that staples including potatoes, tomatoes, cucumbers, and peppers, plus some fruits are among the most exposed foods. 

Looking ahead, reduced plantings and lower yields are also likely to tighten availability later this year and into early 2027. 

“There is a real, serious concern in many parts of the world now about the downstream impacts of the Strait of Hormuz, in terms of price, costs and food availability,” food supply chain specialist Professor Chris Elliott told The Independent.

“The best estimate said that we’ll have food inflation reaching up to 10 per cent by the end of this year, which is pretty frightening for a lot of consumers.”

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has acknowledged that shoppers might need to alter their grocery habits, while chief secretary to the Treasury, Darren Jones, said prices for goods including food will remain higher for at least eight months after the war ends.

Fruit & Veg At High Risk

Fresh produce could reportedly be one of the most affected food groups, with long-lasting supply impacts as a result of the Middle East conflict. 

Experts believe potatoes and key salad items including tomatoes, cucumbers, and peppers, as well as fruits such as strawberries and table grapes will be the hardest hit in terms of supply and prices.

Glasshouse growers, who are heavily reliant on gas and electricity, are facing steep energy bills, raising the risk of reduced production of salad crops such as tomatoes, cucumbers and lettuce in the near term.

Professor Elliott warned that the effects of current input constraints will feed through quickly, with shortages and price increases likely to emerge over the next few months. 

“I think that the consequences will be six months to 12 months from now, more shortages, more price increases, and it will all stem back from the issues around fertiliser,” he explained. 

“It would be the fresh produce like lettuce, tomatoes, and the seasonal things that we start to enjoy more at this time of year.” 

Hormuz Closure Taking Its Toll

Disruption to global supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz is driving sharp increases in key inputs, leaving many growers and farmers facing difficult choices over whether to plant at all, particularly for input-intensive crops.

Fertiliser costs are a primary concern, with the World Bank calculating a 31% increase in prices this year, meaning farmers will struggle to keep up food production.

Already some producers are scaling back applications or delaying cropping plans due to uncertainty over margins.

This is expected to translate directly into lower output and increased pressure on supply. 

“When you're not getting your crop yields, eventually that’s going to manifest in items not being able to be delivered to supermarkets,” noted Dr Derek Watson, an associate Professor in Cultural Management at the University of Sunderland.

At the same time, higher diesel costs are adding to the financial burden on growers.

Disruption to industrial carbon dioxide supplies, meanwhile, could further affect food supply, packing, and shelf life.

Along with fresh produce, supplies of meat, dairy, and toilet paper could also run short.

Considering the implications for world food security, the FAO has called for a coordinated policy response and outlined proactive measures to address the situation. 

If the conflict proves more prolonged, the pressures on food supply and affordability could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity this year, according to the World Food Programme.

Source: The Independent