Grocery Price Growth Slows As UK Food Inflation Falls

The rate of food price inflation in the United Kingdom continued its downward trajectory in January 2026, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Figures released this week show headline inflation — the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) — fell to 3.0 per cent in the year to January, down from 3.4 per cent in December 2025, marking the lowest annual rate since March 2025. Lower prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages played an important part in this moderation.

The annual rate of food inflation — which measures the year-on-year change in the cost of groceries — moderated significantly in early 2026. According to industry reporting, the food inflation rate eased from 4.5 per cent to 3.6 per cent between the year-to-January and the year-to-February readings, contributing substantially to the overall decline in CPI.

Impact on Fresh Produce

While fresh produce remains subject to pricing pressures, the broader slowdown in food inflation suggests that certain categories of fresh fruit and vegetables are experiencing slower price growth than in recent months.

This marks a shift from the pattern seen through much of 2025, when food price inflation outpaced general CPI and fresh produce prices were a key contributor to upward pressure. As of late 2025, UK food and non-alcoholic drink prices had been significantly above overall inflation levels, reflecting sustained price increases across a broad range of staples.

Nevertheless, retailers have flagged ongoing challenges in fresh produce markets. Recent sector commentary points to potential shortages and supply chain pressures affecting fruit and vegetable availability, driven by a combination of logistical constraints, transport delays and adverse weather impacts in key exporting regions.

If these pressures persist, they could disrupt supply and contribute to price volatility for some fresh produce lines, even as overall inflation eases.

What This Means for Consumers

For consumers, the slowing rate of food inflation offers tangible — if cautious — relief. Slower increases in staple items such as bread, meat and cereals have helped contain year-on-year price rises in the shops, reducing some of the burden on household budgets after a prolonged period of elevated costs.

Yet it’s important to underscore that prices are still rising, just at a slower pace. The cost of groceries remains above historical averages and continues to weigh on consumer budgets, particularly for lower-income households who spend a larger share of their income on food.

Even with the current easing, the cumulative increase in food prices over the past few years remains substantial.

Sector Outlook and Confidence

Economists and industry analysts note that the slowdown in food inflation could support broader economic stability and contribute to the Bank of England’s inflation-targeting strategy. Softer food price growth, combined with declines in energy and transportation costs, has helped bring the overall rate closer to the Bank’s long-term target of 2 per cent.

However, consumer confidence remains cautious. Research suggests that many households remain wary of future price changes, with sentiment still influenced by the memory of sharp cost increases in recent years. Continued volatility in global commodity markets, weather-related supply disruptions and logistical challenges could, in time, temper the benefits of current inflation moderation.

The most recent inflation figures bring encouraging signs that the cost pressures on food — including fresh produce — are easing. For shoppers, this offers modest relief at the tills, even as broader structural and supply-chain factors warrant close attention as the year unfolds.