Growers Sound Alarm Over Prices And Import Reliance

Supermarket fruit and vegetable prices could rise by more than 25% due to the Middle East conflict, with industry sources warning that some UK greenhouse growers may have to import produce to fulfil orders as they struggle with rising energy costs. 

Trade representatives say items such as tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, and some imported fruit are among the products most likely to be affected first by soaring energy, fuel, and transport costs.

Supermarkets are said to be calculating price increases with growers, according to Lea Valley Growers Association (LVGA), which produces around 75% of the UK’s cucumbers, peppers, and aubergines.

Prices for some fruits and vegetables have gone up already, according to Stiles, with cucumbers costing 21% more.

LGVA general secretary Lee Stiles told The Sun that the price of cucumbers currently stands at £1.15, compared with 95p before the US-Iran war.

“The true value of the increased production costs for farmers and growers will not be known for several months due to fixed energy contracts and deliveries of fertiliser and chemicals, where the price is not known until they land in the UK,” Stiles explained.

Around 25% would be a “conservative estimate” of cost increases, he added. 

“Some supermarkets are working with growers on formulas to calculate cost increases and compensate growers, however, many are sticking to fixed prices that were agreed last year,” Stiles revealed. 

“The last time this happened at the start of the Russian invasion, those supermarkets saw empty shelves and rationing of items.”

The pressure on growers is being driven by higher oil and gas prices, which are increasing the cost of heating greenhouses, moving produce, and importing goods into the UK. 

Supply chains are being disrupted, with some imports taking longer routes and costing more to bring in to the country.

Supermarkets Face Relying On Imports

UK-based energy-intensive greenhouse growers of tomatoes, lettuce, and cucumbers have been hard hit by the energy price shock. 

Dr Liliana Danila, chief economist at The Food and Drink Federation (FDF), said some reports have indicated that growers “would either finish the production cycle early or that they would go and buy abroad to still fulfil their contracts”. 

This would mean buying from growers overseas so they could still meet order commitments with the supermarkets. 

Dr Danila also pointed out that some greenhouse growers “had gone to retailers to ask for price renegotiation since they couldn’t deal with the rising energy costs”. 

FDF expects food inflation to reach between 9% and 10% by the end of this year, with cost pressures on manufacturers taking take 7-12 months to feed through to consumers.

Food Inflation Reaches 3.7% In March 

In March, food inflation rose by 3.7% year-on-year, up from 3.3% in February, according to the latest ONS figures. 

On a monthly basis, food and non-alcoholic drink prices rose by 0.3%. 

“The clouds are gathering, but the storm has not yet broken on rising food and drink inflation,” Dr Danila explained in a press statement. 

“For manufacturers, long-term contracts with suppliers and retailers mean it can take up to a year for higher costs to be fully passed through. But where products are less processed, or supply chains are shorter, prices will move more quickly. 

“As a result, absent of any government intervention, we expect a gradual but persistent pickup in food inflation, reaching around 9-10% by the end of the year.”

This outlook is echoed by the British Retail Consortium (BRC), with economist Harvir Dhillon noting that mounting cost pressures caused food inflation to "creep up" amid a mixed picture for retail.

“If food prices follow a similar trend as seen following the Ukraine-Russia conflict, prices will start to ramp up more notably throughout 2026,” BRC's Dhillon warned in a press release.

“As a more energy intensive sector, supermarkets and their supply chains are likely to be disproportionately affected.”