Hospitality on Edge: 111,000 Jobs Could Vanish by Next Budget

The hospitality industry is hurtling towards a grim milestone: 111,000 job losses by the next Budget on 26 November, unless urgent action intervenes. That’s the stark projection based on new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

More than half of all jobs lost across the economy since last October are in hospitality. The sector has already shed 84,000 jobs — that’s about 4% of all roles in hotels, restaurants, pubs and foodservice — and 55% of all job losses UK-wide over the same period.

What’s driving the drop

A key trigger has been changes to employer National Insurance Contributions (NICs). From April, the threshold was lowered, meaning some 774,000 people in part-time or flexible roles are now paying NICs for the first time.

Job losses soared in the most recent month — 10,963 hospitality jobs were lost.

Venue closures are also mounting: between January and March 2025 the number of operating hospitality sites fell by 0.3%, equivalent to 20 venues shutting each week, down to 98,866 venues from earlier levels.

Voices from the frontline

Kate Nicholls, Chair of UKHospitality, warns the sector is approaching a “devastating landmark.” She said: “Hospitality is being taxed out and the sheer scale of cost increases hitting the sector is forcing businesses to make tough decisions to cut jobs, raise prices, slash investment and reduce hours. … This is the opposite of what we want to do.

"We want to create jobs, help people come back into work, invest in our businesses and support the communities we serve. I would urge the government to act on our concerns and lower business rates, fix NICs and cut VAT at the Budget. We stand ready to work together on solutions that can reverse the damage already done and help hospitality thrive, not just survive.”

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Meanwhile, Chancellor Rachel Reeves, announcing the date for the November Budget, emphasized that while “Britain’s economy wasn’t ‘broken’,” it was “not working well enough for working people.”

This could mark a turning point: if left unchecked, the sector won’t just face losses in jobs — but in livelihoods, community vibrancy and stability.

For hospitality, the upcoming Budget isn't just another fiscal event — it may be the line between recovery and collapse.