New Report Maps Out UK’s Potential Reactions To Extreme Food Crisis

With recent events serving as a wake-up call, researchers from the University of York, Anglia Ruskin University, and other institutions have mapped how different shocks could trigger a major UK food crisis, leading to civil unrest, and set out ways to strengthen the nation’s resilience.

Published in the journal Sustainability, the study is based on interviews with 39 food system experts from academia, government, and industry. It argues that long-standing structural issues are leaving the UK dangerously exposed to events such as war, extreme weather, and cyber-attacks.

Addressing these weaknesses, the researchers say, is critical to improving national food resilience, and preventing such disruptions from escalating into a crisis, and the risk of social unrest.

The UK food system is highly vulnerable to shocks such as war, trade disruption, cyber attacks and extreme weather because it relies on fragile, just‑in‑time supply chains and imported inputs. The report outlines how a major international conflict could drive up energy prices, disrupt agricultural and food supply chains, increase food prices, and deepen food insecurity, especially for low‑income households. 

These pressures could cascade into serious consequences, such as: rising food fraud, black‑market activity, more food‑related illness and, in a worst case, loss of trust in government and business leading to unrest or riots. 

Recommended Responses

To reduce these risks, the researchers recommend key interventions, including:

• Strengthening UK energy security, diversify food value chains and reduce over‑reliance on single trade routes or suppliers.

• Promoting more varied, resilient diets and address structural weaknesses in access to affordable, nutritious food to cut the risk of crisis hitting the poorest hardest.

• Using systems‑thinking tools and co‑design crisis responses with communities most affected, tackling stigma and “systems of shame” around food insecurity to maintain dignity, voice and social cohesion.

Weak Spots Need Addressing

Titled Potential Pathways and Solutions to Acute Food System Crisis in the UK, the study identifies key systemic weaknesses, crisis triggers, and interventions that could prevent them. 

It also presents a detailed, interconnected map of the UK food system, building on principles of systems thinking, a new tool already being used by policymakers to guide more resilient decision-making. 

Professor Sarah Bridle, Chair of Food, Climate and Society at the University of York, described the stability of the UK’s food system as a “critical aspect” of national security. 

“While there is a growing awareness of the potential risks, not enough coordinated work is being done to address the weak spots in the system, and how people are likely to be affected,” she explained. 

“Understanding how the system might react to extreme pressure is the first step to preventing worst-case scenarios unfolding in the future.” 

The potential for events to trigger a food crisis is frequently underestimated, according to Professor Aled Jones, Director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University. 

“The UK is not immune to disruptions that can lead to severe consequences,” Jones highlighted. “Policymakers must adopt a long-term perspective to policy planning, and work across departments and wider food system stakeholders to ensure a whole-systems approach to addressing the problems.”