Produce Prices Could Soar 170% By 2050 As Climate Change Intensifies

Climate change is “on course to make fresh fruit and vegetables unaffordable” within the next two decades, becoming the dominant force behind rising produce prices in the UK, according to stark new research.

The report from The Autonomy Institute, titled ‘The Price of 5 a Day’, projects that increasing heatwave intensity will significantly raise the cost of both imported and domestically produced fresh produce, placing greater pressure on consumers, retailers, and food manufacturers alike.

The analysis suggests that heatwaves alone could increase the price of the UK’s 20 most commonly consumed fruits and vegetables by around 11% by 2035, and by as much as 68% by 2050 under a high-emissions climate scenario. 

These increases would come on top of standard inflationary pressures already expected across the economy. 

The Autonomy Institute is calling for an government-led inflation strategy for reducing prices to start now to ensure affordability is maintained for healthy essentials in the future. 

Imported And Domestic Produce At Risk

Imported tropical fruits appear particularly vulnerable. The report forecasts climate-related price increases of between 12% and 14% by 2035 for products such as bananas, oranges, table grapes, melons, and easy peelers. 

By mid-century, those increases could reach between 80% and 93%, driven by growing disruption to production in key exporting regions. 

UK-grown staples such as carrots and mushrooms are more insulated but still expected to rise by around 7%.

When combined with projected baseline inflation, average shelf prices across a typical basket of fresh fruit and vegetables could exceed 170% above current levels by 2050, the report estimates.

Climate-Flation Takes Centre Stage

The Autonomy Institute’s research introduces the concept of “climate-flation”, which is inflation driven directly by climate impacts on production and supply chains, and argues that its influence is set to expand dramatically.

According to the analysis, climate-related factors could account for around 40% of total fresh produce inflation by 2035. 

By 2050, that figure is projected to exceed 60%, making climate change the primary driver of price increases across the category.

For food retailers and suppliers, the findings suggest that climate risks are no longer a long-term sustainability issue but an immediate commercial concern with direct implications for sourcing strategies, procurement costs, and consumer affordability.

The report notes that someone currently in their thirties could see climate change evolve from a relatively minor contributor to food inflation into its dominant cause within their working lifetime.

Conservative Estimates

Importantly, the authors of ‘The Price of 5 a Day’ say their projections are deliberately conservative. 

The modelling focuses exclusively on the effects of heatwaves, and uses standard assumptions for consumer price inflation.

It does not include other climate-related disruptions that are already affecting food production worldwide, including flooding, drought, soil degradation, water scarcity, infrastructure damage, and declining crop yields. 

Nor does it account for geopolitical instability, trade disruption or resource competition, factors that are increasingly intertwined with climate pressures.

As a result, the authors argue that the real-world impact on food prices could be substantially higher than the scenarios presented. 

Policy Implications

For growers, wholesalers, and retailers, the report raises questions about long-term resilience and investment priorities. 

The report argues that government intervention will be required to maintain affordability and ensure access to healthy food, with the Autonomy Institute calling for a coordinated state strategy to address rising prices. 

Its future research is expected to explore options including price controls, investment in domestic horticulture, and broader industrial policies aimed at strengthening food system resilience. 

The authors conclude that action cannot be delayed until food affordability becomes a crisis. 

With climate impacts on agricultural production already emerging, they argue that measures to manage inflationary pressures should begin now, rather than waiting until wage growth can no longer offset the rising cost of essential healthy foods. 

As climate change increasingly shapes agricultural output and supply chain stability, the food sector may need to prepare for a future in which weather-related price shocks become a structural feature of the market rather than an exceptional event.

Download the full report here.