Rachel Reeves, the Shadow Chancellor, is aiming to unlock over £50 billion for UK investments by revising how the government measures debt in its fiscal rules at next month’s budget.
According to senior government sources speaking to The Times, Reeves has requested officials to explore options that would allow the government to offset assets against national debt, potentially freeing up substantial funds to fuel economic growth.
This proposed change could include considering the £236 billion owed in student loans and government stakes in major banks like NatWest as assets. The move would align the UK’s fiscal calculations with international practices, as Reeves herself hinted at Labour's recent conference, saying, “It is important that we count the benefits of public investment and not just the costs of it.”
Reeves further explained that other nations “look at assets as well as liabilities,” adding that Labour is considering all these factors. The recalibration could enable significant investments, such as Labour’s £7 billion national wealth fund and the £8 billion earmarked for the newly proposed Great British Energy initiative.
However, the Shadow Chancellor has been clear that these reforms would not allow for an increase in day-to-day spending, such as reinstating winter fuel payments. Such expenditures, she said, must still be covered by annual tax receipts rather than borrowing.
Economists estimate that this potential shift could free up more than £50 billion for investment. Lindsay James, an investment strategist at Quilter Investors, noted that altering fiscal rules would not be unprecedented, having already been changed six times in the past nine years. She warned, however, that with UK debt now standing at 100% of GDP, “bond investors are unsurprisingly likely to be rather sensitive as to how the UK government calculates its own spending ability.”
“Whilst effective investment is vital to renewing UK economic growth, how it is defined, shaped, and ultimately paid for will remain crucial,” James added.
Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Finalto, was more direct in his assessment, calling the current fiscal rules “kinda stupid.” He cautioned that even if Labour proceeds with its plans to exclude investments from the balance sheet, the party would still be constrained by the need to reduce net debt as a share of GDP within years four and five of the forecast period.
Under the current government’s rules, national debt must fall as a percentage of GDP over the next five years, a target that remains a significant challenge for any future administration.
Reeves' proposal, while potentially transformative, raises questions about balancing investment with fiscal responsibility, a debate that could shape the future of the UK economy.
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