Significant Risk To Next Year’s Crops Prompts NFU Fertiliser Resilience Plan

The National Farming Union (NFU) has unveiled a Fertiliser Resilience Plan, urging both government and industry to take immediate action to protect UK food production as farmers face “incredibly tough” decisions over the 2027 growing season. 

Image: NFU | Alamy

The plan comes as farming businesses continue to grapple with rising production costs linked to ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted trade routes, increased pressure on agricultural supply chains, and weakened farmers’ business confidence. 

The NFU said fertiliser cost increases mean there is a “significant risk” growers will reduce plantings for 2027 and/or hold back from applying key macro nutrients which would have further impacts on crop yields.

Announcing the Fertiliser Resilience Plan at Cereals 2026, NFU President Tom Bradshaw said the UK “can't keep being collateral damage to global politics”, adding that “fertiliser for 2027 must be affordable”.

“In the long term, it all comes down to resilience,” Bradshaw pointed out. "We need to find ways to build fairness, transparency and support into our domestic food production system so we can continue to feed 70 million people three times a day.” 

Four Recommendations To Boost Resilience

With farmers already beginning to plan for the 2027 growing season, the NFU has outlined a series of measures designed to improve affordability and strengthen resilience across the sector.

1. Direct Support Trigger Point – Among the proposals is a call for the government to establish a trigger point for direct support. If imported ammonium nitrate reaches £500 per tonne, the NFU said ministers should introduce a scheme mirroring compensation measures available within the European Union. The proposed support would allow growers to claim up to 70% of additional fertiliser costs, capped at £50,000.

2. Postpone CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) – The NFU is calling for the postponement of the UK's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), arguing that its introduction could further increase fertiliser costs, create import friction, and contribute to higher food prices. The NFU has proposed a 12-month market review before any implementation.

3. AHDB Knowledge Exchange On Nutrient Management – The NFU wants the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) to expand its work on nutrient management, helping farmers make informed decisions about fertiliser use, and reducing the risk of lower crop productivity caused by reduced or delayed nutrient applications.

4. Greater Transparency In The Fertiliser Market – The NFU is recommending that the AHDB provide more detailed information on trade flows, stock levels, usage patterns and pricing to help growers make informed purchasing decisions.

Farming Businesses Under Threat

British farmers and growers continue face immense pressure as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, which is squeezing budgets and knocking business confidence. 

To further address the issue, the NFU has brought together leading UK banks to outline the key challenges, and to highlight how banking agri-leaders can support the nation’s farming industry to strengthen resilience and restore profitability. 

“The increasing costs of fertiliser, energy and fuel in the run-up to this year’s harvest has already made things incredibly challenging for farm businesses,” Bradshaw stated. 

“While the 2026 harvest is yet to begin, farming is all about looking ahead and many will already be turning their attention to making decisions about next year’s crops.

“Fertiliser for 2027 must be affordable. If it is not, some farmers and growers could be left facing incredibly tough decisions about whether to try to grow a crop with reduced fertiliser applications, or whether to plant at all. It is vital both industry and government take the necessary actions now to help ease this strain.

UK Agriculture Remains Exposed

According to the NFU, the UK farming sector remains highly exposed to fluctuations in global energy and fertiliser markets, a vulnerability first highlighted during the war in Ukraine and now intensified by instability in the Middle East. 

Continued disruption through the Strait of Hormuz has contributed to significant increases in fertiliser prices.

In April, fertiliser prices were almost 40% higher than pre-war levels and have remained elevated. 

Since the conflict began, fertiliser prices have exceeded £500 per tonne on several occasions, with urea reaching £635 per tonne, and imported ammonium nitrate rising to £535 per tonne in April.

The UK is particularly vulnerable to such shocks, importing around 60% of its nitrogen fertiliser requirements. The remaining fertiliser is processed or produced domestically using imported ammonia.