Supersized El Niño Threatens UK Food Imports Worth £1.7bn

A strengthening El Niño could add further pressure to the UK fruit and vegetable supply chain, as experts warn that up to a quarter of the country’s food imports worth £17 billion are “in the line of fire” this year, as well as domestic production. 

Some 86% of the UK’s fruit is imported, including a significant proportion from South America and Africa – nations that are expected to experience some of the strongest impacts from the developing El Niño, according to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).

Concerns are rising over growing conditions for imported bananas, tables grapes, raspberries, strawberries, and citrus, alongside rice, coffee, and cocoa, as the weather phenomenon intensifies into what could reportedly be the strongest in living memory.

Vegetables that are produced domestically in the UK, such as tomatoes and onions, could also be impacted, the ECIU said.

Imported Fruit In Focus

The ECIU estimates that the UK imports two fifths of its food, with a quarter of that volume grown in regions where El Niño’s impacts are most directly felt, including Asia, Africa, South America, and North America. 

South America alone accounts for 88% of UK banana imports, according to figures for 2025, and this region typically experiences extreme heat and rainfall during El Niño events, posing risks for production and logistics.

For other fruit categories, African production is particularly important to the UK market. 

Grapes, raspberries, strawberries, and a significant proportion of citrus imports are sourced from countries in Africa, where El Niño is expected to bring hotter conditions and more prolonged drought.

UK Production Also Exposed

The implications for UK supply could extend beyond imported produce too. 

Tomatoes, strawberries, raspberries, and onions are among the crops that are grown in the UK for part of the year, as well as being imported. 

While El Niño’s direct impact on the UK is less certain, the Met Office expects wetter and stormier conditions in the UK during autumn and winter, with impacts lasting through to February 2027.

Increasingly volatile weather conditions both overseas and at home therefore could affect domestic and import sourcing alike, driving up prices simultaneously.

The Met Office warns that this year could be “the strongest El Niño we’ve yet faced”, notes Gareth Redmond-King, head of international programme at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).

“The heat it will add into our climate system, on top of human-driven temperature rises, look almost certain to push 2027 to be the hottest year on record, at something like 1.7°C over and above pre-industrial revolution,” explains Redmond-King. 

“This will fan the flames of climate change, turbo-charging the threats we have already seen hit food production at home and abroad in recent years. 

“Impacts will hit nations from which we imported around £17 billion worth of food last year, not only threatening further price rises at home, but also the livelihoods and nutrition of the men and women who produce our food in some of the poorest countries of the world.”

Climate Change ‘Turbocharges’ El Niño

This year’s El Niño is set to compound existing climate change-related pressures on agricultural production globally, notably this summer’s devastating heatwaves.

The concern for the UK is that another period of severe weather could add to the harvesting shortages and rising prices that are already being felt across international supply chains. 

“After five heatwaves and widespread drought, British arable farmers are now facing the worst harvest on record, meaning four of the five worst harvests will have occurred this decade (2020, 2024, 2025, 2026,” laments Chris Jaccarini, Senior Economist on Food and Climate at the ECIU. 

“And yet, without action, these could be the good years. Unless we rapidly cut emissions and strengthen resilience, climate change impact will continue to worsen with El Niño turbocharging the trend every few years.” 

ECIU claims the clear scientific consensus is that cutting our greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by the middle of the century is the only solution available to slow climate change, and bring the climate back into balance. 

Without this, it predicts that the impacts will worsen and become “even more of a threat to our food production”, meaning that a future El Niño would add greater danger still.

Read the full ECIU report here.