UK Agri-Food Trade Gap Represents Significant Growth Opportunity

The UK’s growing agri‑food trade deficit represents “untapped potential” to expand domestic production and exports, provided future trade agreements genuinely support agriculture, according to the NFU. 

UK agri‑food imports are rising faster than exports, with the trade gap at around £3.5 billion per month, NFU’s Head of Trade and Business Strategy, Gail Soutar, told delegates at the Oxford Farming Conference (OFC) 2026, where Defra pledged farmers and growers a new era of partnership.

The imbalance highlights “untapped potential” to grow both the UK’s agri-food export value and volume, while substituting more imports with high-quality British produce, Soutar said. 

“The UK is, and always has been, a trading nation,” Soutar explained in her opening address to an OFC panel session focused on ‘growing trade’s resilience’. “But in recent years, we’ve seen imports grow rapidly in value, while export growth has lagged well behind.”

This deficit should sharpen the focus on strengthening domestic production, according to Soutar, as well as improving market access for UK farmers in upcoming trade negotiations.

Future Trade Policies Will Be Critical

Gail Soutar | Image: Oxford Farming Conference

Trade policy is expected to remain fast‑moving in the year ahead, making the next phase of deals critical for whether the deficit narrows and farm returns improve, Soutar said.

Current and anticipated negotiations with partners such as the European Union, Turkey, and Switzerland are expected to focus on market access, regulatory barriers, and securing a level playing field for UK agri‑food products. 

“From an international trade perspective, things are going to continue at pace in the year ahead,” Soutar pointed out.

Lessons In Export Success

During the OFC panel discussion, Scotch whisky was cited as a stand-out example of success on the back of consistent market access, long‑term strategy, and strong international positioning can deliver export success.

Responsible for about a quarter of current UK food and drink exports, Scotch whisky illustrates the scale of potential export opportunities for other UK agri-food sectors.

However, fellow panelist Emily Weaver Roads of the Scotch Whisky Association noted that exporters of the spirit are facing the same pressures as British farmers and growers, including: geopolitical and trade volatility, weaker consumer confidence, and rising business costs.

This highlights the need for future trade agreements to deliver tangible benefits across a broad range of agricultural sectors, stressed Soutar.

The year ahead will be pivotal in ascertaining whether new trade deals can reduce the trade gap, and thereby build greater resilience and improved returns for UK farmers, Soutar concluded. 

The OFC panel about: ‘growing trade’s resilience’, featured Gail Soutar (NFU), Alistair Carmichael (EFRA Committee Chair), Rizvan Khalid (Euro Quality Lambs), and Emily Weaver Roads (Scotch Whisky Association), focusing on the future direction and resilience of UK trade.