UK Apple Supply Under Threat As Orchard Renewal Slows, Warns BAPL

Rising input prices are pushing UK apple and pear production costs significantly higher this season, limiting new planting and raising concerns about domestic supply capacity, according to British Apples & Pears Limited (BAPL).

Since early March 2026 inflation has added £31.30 per tonne to the cost of producing Gala apples in the UK, according to a new BAPL-commissioned report from consultancy Andersons Midlands, which examines the impact of recent geopolitical tensions in Iran on grower production costs.

When combined with earlier forecasts for the year, total cost increases are now estimated at £63.30 per tonne, which is equivalent to 6.3p/kg, or a 4.5% rise.

Key cost drivers include fertiliser, fuel, electricity, packaging and logistics – all inputs that are critical for growers from orchard to packhouse and distribution.

The independent report highlights parallels with the cost surge experienced following the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022 when topfruit production expenses climbed sharply over a short period – approximately 30% in two years. 

During that time, grower returns failed to keep pace with inflation, placing sustained pressure on profitability as supermarket returns rose by just 8%.

The current concern is that a similar pattern could emerge if supply chain pricing does not adjust in line with rising costs, according to BAPL executive chair Ali Capper.

“We have already seen the consequences when grower returns fail to keep pace with inflation,” she asserted. “Profitability is reduced, businesses come under pressure, orchard renewal slows, and investment decisions are delayed.

"The latest increases in fertiliser, fuel, electricity, packaging and transport costs come on top of several years of already rising production costs and squeezed margins,” Capper added.

Production Capacity Will Decline

Longer-term impacts are already becoming visible in planting intentions, according to grower body BAPL. 

Data from BAPL’s Orchard and Storage Census shows that planned new orchard establishment over the next three years is about one-third lower than the previous five-year average. 

Industry estimates suggest approximately 369 hectares of new plantings are needed annually to maintain output, yet current projections indicate that the figure is closer to 145 hectares per year.

BAPL said this slowdown in orchard renewal is linked to reduced margins and constrained reinvestment.

And if costs rise further, investment in orchards, storage, and technology could be stifled yet still. 

The potential implications for future domestic supply is clear. 

Without sufficient capital going back into orchards, the UK apple and pear sector risks a gradual decline in current production capacity. 

BAPL’s Capper warned that repeated cost shocks are becoming increasingly difficult for growers to absorb alone, particularly following several consecutive years of elevated input prices. 

“After one of the best harvest years we've ever had in 2025, British apple and pear growers are once again facing significant cost inflation caused by global events entirely beyond their control,” she lamented.

Retailers And Growers ‘Must Work Together’

While the industry has demonstrated resilience through previous disruptions, Capper said there is growing emphasis on the need for supply chain alignment. 

“The industry has shown that it can weather periods of major global disruption, but repeated cost shocks cannot continue to be absorbed solely by growers,” she pointed out.

"There is a real opportunity for retailers and growers to work together to ensure these additional costs are recognised fairly across the supply chain."

BAPL has called on retailers to adhere to the Groceries Code Adjudicator’s seven golden rules on cost price increases.

The organisation stressed the need for clear communication, timely and fair decisions, consideration for smaller suppliers, and no delisting threats during negotiations. 

Source: FreshPlaza