UK Growers Must Adapt Faster To Remain Viable Under Changing Climate

British farming must adapt and diversify to remain viable and protect domestic food production from intensifying heat, flooding, and drought, according to the government’s climate advisers, who warn that the UK’s reliance on food imports also risks climate-related price inflation.

In its latest report, ‘A Well-Adapted UK’, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) said extreme weather is already affecting yields, farm incomes, and long-term business confidence across UK agriculture, with increasingly severe conditions occurring in consecutive seasons. 

To remain viable under the future climate, British farms will need to adapt both what they produce and how they produce, enabling businesses to withstand poor seasons while capitalising on favourable ones. 

Describing the report as “a stark and frightening reality check”, the Soil Association is calling for a doubling in domestic production and consumption of fruits and vegetables; warning that the UK’s reliance on imported produce is increasingly risky due to climate pressures globally.

The charity also advocates greater support for pulses and nature-friendly farming methods, such as organic systems, to boost soil health and resilience.

Potential For Oranges, Chickpeas 

From now through to 2050, the CCC recommends maintaining domestic food production at no less than 60%.

Ultimately, it says some farms may need to shift production entirely to grow crops that are more appropriate for future climate conditions.

Warmer conditions could enable crops such as oranges or chickpeas to potentially become viable in southern England, although this would require new skills, training, and access to finance.

One of the most critical climate challenges facing farming is water, with increasing pressure from both drought and flooding, according to the report.

This will affect irrigation, livestock management, field access, and crop establishment, requiring resilient soil and water management practices across all farm types.

The CCC said resilient soil and water management practices and better use of technology will be needed across all farm types, as well as leaving more space to help nature adapt on farmed land.

Greater Support Needed For Farms 

The CCC has put forward several recommendations for the government to incentivise farmers and growers to shift to sustainable long-term food production over the next two years.

Among those is greater practical support for farms to invest in on-site water storage, improved soil resilience, crop diversification, and more climate-resilient food supply chains. 

The organisation also calls for barriers to adaptation to be removed, including making it easier for farms to store water, and for public subsidies to support long-term food production while encouraging climate resilience.

Without adaptation, the CCC warns some farms could become unviable in the worst years.

Already, the impact is being felt. Following the hot, dry spring and summer of 2025, UK yields for crops including wheat and oats were more than 10% below the 10-year average.

Looking ahead, the committee warns that by 2050, under 2oC of global warming, the proportion of high-quality farmland in England and Wales could fall from around 40% (1961-1990 average) to just over 10%.

With that in mind, the CCC warns that the cost of inaction will far exceed the cost of adapting. 

It estimates that around £11 billion (bn) per year will be needed, shared between public and private investment. 

Without adaptation, climate-related welfare losses could reach between 1% and 5% of UK GDP by 2050 under a 2oC scenario, equivalent to £60bn-£260bn annually.

Imports Compound Food Security Risk

With climate change affecting producers globally and around 40% of UK food imported, the CCC said extreme weather impacts overseas could affect prices of imported food as much as domestic supply. 

By 2050, simultaneous crop failures in key producing regions or supply chain disruptions could drive price spikes and increased volatility, with lower-income households most affected.

The committee also warns of potential shortages across key nutritional food groups. 

It calls for mandatory climate risk reporting across the food system, including supermarkets, through an expanded Adaptation Reporting Power. 

The CCC also urges government to stress-test supply chains and to consider national food stockpiling.

Maximise Production, Reduce Imports

Martin Lines, CEO of the Nature Friendly Farming Network (NFFN), said UK farmers are on “the front line of climate change” and “struggling to cope” with volatile weather conditions.

Recent climate extremes had pushed the current farming model “to the brink”, he added.

“The Climate Change Committee’s recognition that radical action is required to protect food security and insulate shoppers from rocketing prices and gaps on supermarket shelves is welcome,” Lines explained.

Calling for an “ambitious transformation of agriculture” centred on nature-friendly approaches, Lines argues that the UK should maximise domestic production while reducing reliance on imports from climate-vulnerable regions.

“Reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and chemical inputs, and working with nature instead, is the route to sustainable harvests and viable farm businesses for the future,” he emphasised.

Double Fruit And Veg Production

The Soil Association is also urging stronger support for agroecological approaches, including organic farming and agroforestry.

“This report serves as a stark and frightening reality check for government on how climate change will risk our food security and national security,” stated Gareth Morgan, the organisation’s head of policy for farming and land use.

The UK food system is “dangerously vulnerable” to shocks such as conflict and climate change, according to Morgan, warning that the long-term source of the UK’s food supply remains uncertain.

“In an increasingly flooded and drought stressed world, it is dangerous for us to continue with our current reliance on imports, especially for fruit and veg,” he said.

The Soil Association called for a doubling of domestic fruit and vegetable production and consumption, alongside greater support for crops such as beans, peas, and pulses, which can improve soil fertility without synthetic fertilisers.

Morgan said these changes should be delivered through nature-friendly systems such as organic farming, which prioritise soil health and improve resilience to extreme weather.

A Message Of Hope

Despite the increasing climate pressure, Baroness Brown, chair of the Adaptation Committee, stressed that the UK is “not powerless”.

However, she said adaptation is central to safeguarding the UK’s food, energy, and economic security.

“This report carries a message of hope,” Baroness Brown said. “The solutions already exist, and proven technologies are available now to help the UK adapt effectively. With the right decisions and actions, we can protect the people and the places we love.”

The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) said the findings reflect what many farmers are already experiencing, including more volatile weather, declining yields and mounting pressure on farm businesses. 

While welcoming the CCC’s recognition of these challenges, the organisation stressed that farmers cannot address them alone.

“The report is clear that farming has become increasingly challenging in the UK – changing weather patterns are already hitting yields, farm incomes and long-term business confidence,” noted NFU Deputy President Paul Tompkins.

Tompkins added that geopolitical instability, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, is compounding pressures through higher fuel, fertiliser and energy costs.

“We welcome the CCC's recognition of how extreme weather impacts farming and agree that we can still grow domestic food production, but only if government helps farming adapt now,” he said.

Tompkins said this support should include investment in water storage, more flexible water abstraction, improved soil resilience, and measures to reduce disease, alongside removing barriers to growth.

“This report emphasises our long-term ask that government must continue to work hand-in-hand with farmers to target investment in adaption as well as food production and the environment so our members can continue to produce food in a changing climate,” Tompkins added.

Baroness Brown said there is clear public demand for action.

“The public want to see change and the government now has an opportunity to step up and protect our way of life,” she said.

NFFN’s Lines added that the issue extends beyond individual farm businesses.

“The government needs to realise now that food security is national security,” he said.

Beyond agriculture, the report calls for action on overheating in buildings, flood defences, water shortages, infrastructure, and insurance. 

However, its warnings for UK farming are among the most significant for the food sector. 

Source: FarmingUK

Read the CCC’s report in full: A Well-Adapted UK