UK Plans For Food Shortages If Input Disruption Deepens

The UK is preparing for a possible worst-case disruption to food supplies if the Iran war drags on, as the FAO warns of a “global agrifood catastrophe” if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed blocking key inputs.

UK government officials are reportedly modelling a scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz standoff continues and carbon dioxide (CO2) supplies are badly hit, affecting the farming, food production, and hospitality sectors in particular. 

The immediate risk is less about empty shelves and more about pressure on parts of the food chain that rely on CO2, including cucumber production and the salad bagging process, at a time when producers are struggling already with high fuel and fertiliser costs.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) said “the clock is ticking” to ward off the risks of a “dangerous spike” in food inflation later this year. 

FAO warns ships carrying critical agricultural input must start moving through the Strait of Hormuz “as soon as possible” to avert lower crop yields, increased commodity prices, and higher food inflation for the next year.

“We are in an input crisis; we don’t want to make it a catastrophe,” said David Laborde, Director of FAO’s Agrifood Economics Division. “The difference depends on the actions we take.” 

The FAO is urging all countries to closely consider biofuel mandates and to avoid export restrictions on energy and fertilisers.

Next Stress Shock – Carbon Dioxide

Now the food and drink sector is facing a potential CO2 shortage.

CO2 is used widely to humanely slaughter animals such as pigs and chickens, to extend the shelf-life certain foods like salads, and to carbonate drinks and alcohol, as well as for refrigeration.

Under a Cobra-run initiative dubbed ‘Exercise Turnstone’, the government said it is drawing up contingency plans, rather than a forecast. 

Business leaders have stressed that there are no current supply problems. 

Tesco’s chief executive Ken Murphy said none of the supermarket chain’s growers, suppliers or manufacturers had reported risks so far.

“We are not flagging any issues in our supply chain at this point,” Murphy commented in a report by The Times. “We’re not seeing any availability issues. We are in very good shape.”

The British Retail Consortium has reportedly said retailers are used to managing disruption but warned that the Middle East crisis is adding to inflationary pressure.

For consumers, the bigger near-term issue is likely to be higher prices rather than outright shortages. 

At the end of last month, the NFU warned that cucumber and tomato prices could rise within weeks, with broader cost increases for other crops and milk following later. 

Industry figures say higher fertiliser, energy, and logistics costs are almost certain to feed through into food inflation.

“The outlook for 2026 points to continued pressure on farm economics and increased downside risks for global crop production and food price stability,” explained a Rabobank spokesperson in its Semiannual Fertiliser Outlook.

Already, the spike in the cost of heating glasshouses is prompting increased prices for traditional salad items, including tomatoes, cucumber, and peppers. 

Last month the government moved to shore up domestic CO2 supply by temporarily restarting the Ensus bioethanol plant, which produces CO2 as part of its manufacturing process. 

For now, ministers claims the public should carry on as normal, but officials are clearly preparing for a more difficult summer if the conflict and shipping disruption continue. 

The International Monetary Fund warned earlier this week that the war could tip the global economy into recession, with the UK expected to be hit hardest among advanced economies.