UK’s Import Reliance Risks Fresh Produce Supply Shocks And Price Hikes

The government is being urged to invest in a major expansion of UK horticulture as heavy reliance on imported fruits and vegetables is leaving the country increasingly exposed to climate-driven supply disruptions and potentially higher prices, according to The Food Foundation.

A new report from the organisation, titled ‘Farming for 5-a-day: how resilient is the UK’s supply of fruit, veg and beans in a changing climate’, warns that the UK is importing healthy staple foods from countries that are often significantly more vulnerable to climate change than Britain itself.

At the same time, many of those imported fruits and vegetables can be grown in the UK, including topfruit, berries, salad items, and green vegetables. 

The Food Foundation is calling on the government to support producers to grow more fruit and vegetables domestically, and to increase public produce consumption.

The organisation is also urging investment to enable climate adaptation, build resilience on farms, and strengthen local food systems and supply chains.

Import Dependence Creates Price Shock Risk

Of the 20 countries from which the UK imports the most fruit and vegetables, the report found that 18 produce items, or 90%, are considered to be moderately to severely vulnerable to climate change.

The UK imports around 40% of all its food, but its reliance is particularly pronounced in fresh produce. Around 80% of fruit and 47% of vegetables consumed in the UK are imported.

That leaves the market exposed to disruption in overseas growing regions, where rising temperatures, drought, water scarcity, and extreme weather can reduce yields and affect quality.

These risks are already visible in global fresh produce markets, where climate-related crop failures can quickly translate into tighter availability, increased sourcing costs, and higher prices for retailers and consumers.

The Food Foundation warns that the problem could intensify as climate change puts further pressure on major fruit and vegetable producing regions, including the Mediterranean, North Africa, and parts of South and Central America.

Indeed, the IPCC has forecast that without greater resilience, higher temperatures could result in yield losses, heat stress and declining crop quality across global fruit, vegetable and annual crop production.

More Could Be Grown Domestically

The report argues that greater domestic production could provide an important buffer against these external shocks.

Of the UK’s nine most purchased fruits, five can be grown domestically – – apples, strawberries, blueberries, raspberries and pears. 

Yet the UK remains less than 40% self-sufficient in four of these categories, suggesting significant scope to expand production.

The same applies across vegetables. 

Tomatoes, mushrooms, peppers, cucumbers, onions, broccoli, and green beans are among the vegetables that could be produced in greater quantities in the UK. 

However, with the exception of carrots, which have a self-sufficiency rate of around 94%, domestic production accounts for less than half of UK supply across these key categories.

Some products, such as bananas and citrus, will inevitably remain dependent on imports because of the UK’s climate. 

But the report argues that there is a substantial opportunity to reduce exposure by increasing production of crops that can be grown successfully in Britain.

Mismatch Between Consumption And Production

The Food Foundation also highlights a fundamental mismatch between the UK’s dietary ambitions and its agricultural output.

Government guidance recommends that fruit and vegetables should account for 41% of the UK diet. Yet it says these food groups represent only around 7% of domestic food production.

At the same time, fewer than one in three adults and less than one in ten 11- to 18-year-olds currently consume their recommended five portions a day.

The organisation argues that increasing domestic horticultural production alongside measures to boost consumption could improve access to healthy food while strengthening national food security.

The economic case for expansion is also significant. Previous analysis cited by the report suggests that expanding UK horticulture could add billions to the economy, create more than 20,000 jobs, and increase farm profits by around 3%.

Government Urged To Act

The forthcoming Horticulture Sector Growth Plan is identified as a key opportunity to set out a long-term strategy for increasing domestic production, strengthening supply chains, and improving farm resilience.

The Food Foundation is also calling for statutory long-term targets covering both fruit and vegetable consumption and the proportion of supply produced domestically.

Anna Taylor, executive director of The Food Foundation, said the UK should not wait for shortages before acting.

“Government must invest to increase consumption of fruit and veg, to ensure we are growing more of these foods domestically, and to support farmers so they are able to adapt to changing weather patterns in the UK,” stated Anna Taylor, Executive Director of The Food Foundation. 

“Whilst the UK has been experiencing successive heatwaves and drought across much of the country, it is important to acknowledge that most of the countries we import our staple, healthy foods from are in an even more vulnerable position as we see the impacts of climate change ramp up across the globe. 

“There is a risk this will drive up prices in the future, putting nutritious foods further out of reach for many, so it is important government takes action now to prevent this from happening.

For growers, however, expansion will depend on more than demand. 

Investment in water infrastructure, climate adaptation, energy, labour and planning will all be critical if British production is to increase.

Ali Capper, executive chairman of British Apples and Pears, said the UK has an “excellent growing climate” with “ambitious” growers who could improve food security by producing more fruit and vegetables domestically. 

“To do so they need the certainty that good government policy can deliver - certainty on continued and increased access to the Seasonal Workers Scheme; water for food; an agile planning regulation; competitively priced energy,” Capper pointed out.

“Growers also need market certainty – long term agreements and profitable returns. Our society deserves to be able to buy a homegrown 5-a-day. The Horticulture Sector Growth Plan is the ideal initiative to make this happen.”

With climate volatility becoming a more significant factor in fresh produce sourcing, the report makes the case that expanding UK horticulture comes down to protecting the continuity and affordability of the UK’s fresh produce supply.

Read the full report here.