British Potato Growers Face Losses Of Up To £169m After Summer Drought

British potato growers could face losses of between £80 million and £169 million after extreme heat and drought hit crop yields across the UK and mainland Europe.

New analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), drawing on industry data, suggests that weather-related losses could remove more than 3.5 million tonnes of potatoes from production across Great Britain, Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands.

Around 3.1 million tonnes of that reduction is expected across the four major Eurozone producers. When the anticipated impact on Great Britain is included, the estimated shortfall rises above 3.5 million tonnes.

The lost production across all five countries has been valued at between €498 million and €818 million, while losses in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands alone are estimated at €405 million to €622 million.

ECIU’s calculations compare anticipated production with five-year averages and use a combination of grower test digs, national statistics and trade estimates.

Belgium is facing the sharpest estimated yield reduction at 21%, followed by France at 13%, Germany at 10% and the Netherlands at 7%.

Equivalent official figures are no longer available for Great Britain because the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board stopped publishing potato harvest and yield estimates in 2021.

Instead, World Potato Markets has modelled the British crop using 2018 — another drought year — as an analogue. It estimates that 2026 yields could be 11% below the 2021–2025 average. ECIU cautioned that the Great Britain figure carries a lower level of confidence than estimates for the four continental European countries because it is based on a scenario rather than test digs.

The weather-related losses follow a substantial reduction in the European potato-growing area after last year’s glut and the low prices received by growers. Based on average yields, ECIU said the reduced planted area represents a further 3.6 million tonnes of lost production.

The combination could leave the European Union facing one of its smallest potato harvests on record and is already influencing market prices.

British processors are reportedly paying more than £300 per tonne to secure supplies, compared with £180 in February. In Germany, processing potatoes have risen to €240 per tonne after reaching a seasonal low of €15 in June.

Heat and drought have also reduced tuber size. In Belgium, Fontane crops — the country’s principal processing variety — were yielding 32 tonnes per hectare at the end of August, 30% below last year. Only half the crop was above the 50mm size generally required by processors.

Cedric Porter, editor of World Potato Markets, said increasingly extreme conditions were making investment in water infrastructure vital.

“Investment in water management, whether it is conserving water when there is too much or irrigating during dry summers, will be essential,” he said.

The findings underline the growing production and financial risks facing potato growers as periods of winter and spring rainfall are increasingly followed by damaging summer heat and water shortages.

Sources: The Scottish Farmer and Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit